212,821 characters ran at least one raid on TBC Anniversary in the week of September 8 to 14. Three weeks later, from September 30 to October 6, only 96,523 remain. In between, Blizzard opened the WoW Forever beta, and more than half of the Burning Crusade raiders put down their weapons. Mists of Pandaria Classic is on the same slope, a little more slowly.
TBC Anniversary and MoP Classic, week by week
These figures come from Ironforge.pro, a site that counts characters who took part in at least one raid logged on Warcraft Logs, the tool where guilds upload the records of their fights. Wowhead was first to spot the break, in an article by Slesh in late September. We pulled the most recent week today, October 11.
| Week | TBC Anniversary | Mists of Pandaria Classic |
|---|---|---|
| September 8 to 14 (before the beta) | 212,821 | 33,125 |
| September 15 to 21 (beta opened on the 17th) | 124,487 | 24,971 |
| September 30 to October 6 | 96,523 | 19,428 |
| Change | −55% | −41% |
The sharpest fall happened in a single week: 88,334 fewer raiders on TBC between the week before the beta and the week it opened. The slope flattened afterwards, but it did not reverse. And it hits both factions equally: the Alliance and Horde split on TBC stays close to 48/52.
Ironforge.pro only counts raids that someone bothered to log. A guild that does not upload its logs does not exist for the site. The figure therefore measures a trend, not the actual number of players. The method, however, did not change between September and October, so the week-to-week comparison holds.
Why raiders leave before Forever is even out
WoW Forever does not launch until November 4, and its raids will only open in December. Nothing forces a TBC raider to abandon Black Temple now. Many do it anyway, for three reasons that add up.
The first is content. TBC Anniversary is in Phase 3, Black Temple and Mount Hyjal, and a guild that has been farming these raids for weeks has little left to gain there. The second is playtime: estimates to reach level 60 in Forever range from 50 to 200 hours depending on the source. A player who wants to be ready for the December raids learns the classes and dungeons right now, in the Forever beta. An evening spent there is one less evening raiding in TBC.
The third reason is the most corrosive: nobody knows what happens to these versions. Wowhead sums it up: after TBC, nothing indicates that a Wrath of the Lich King Anniversary will follow. And Mists of Pandaria Classic has been in its final phase since June, with Siege of Orgrimmar, with nothing announced next.
“Please Don’t Ghost Us”: Blizzard’s silence weighs as much as Forever
On September 13, during BlizzCon, a player named Jayzon opened a thread on the official Mists of Pandaria Classic forum titled “Please Don’t Ghost Us, Blizzard”. The post asks for neither WoD Classic nor a promise. It asks for an answer, whatever it is: “I’m just asking them to communicate with us.” Jayzon would rather hear bad news than sit through months of silence.
The post collected 104 likes and the thread passed 9,400 views. No reply from a Blizzard employee appears on the first page. Warcraft Tavern noted again in September that there was no word on the future of WoW Classic, TBC Anniversary and MoP Classic.
That silence explains part of the exodus. A player invests in a raid when they know their character has a future. Without a schedule, every piece of Black Temple gear looks like a deposit into an account about to close. Forever has a date, a roadmap and an open beta.
Zul’Aman, October 22: the test that will show whether the drop lasts
Blizzard holds one card. Phase 3.5 of TBC Anniversary opens Zul’Aman on October 22: a 10-player raid, hostages to save against the clock and the Amani War Bear at the end. It is the first new content since the Forever beta opened, and the first way to measure whether departed raiders left out of boredom or for good.
If the week of October 22 to 28 climbs clearly on Ironforge.pro, the September drop was mostly boredom, and fresh content is enough to bring guilds back. If it stays flat, players have already switched, and the end of the Forever beta, then the launch on November 4, will deepen the trend. The date of Phase 4 and Sunwell Plateau, still unannounced, will weigh in too.
We will pull the figures for the week of October 22 to 28 as soon as Ironforge.pro publishes them, and compare them with this snapshot.
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